This piece in The New York Times reporting on what the Pentagon has concluded the fallout would be were Iran to be attacked, should not come as a surprise to anyone who has stopped to think about the ramifications.
"A classified war simulation exercise held this month to assess the American military’s capabilities to respond to an Israeli attack on Iran forecast that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials.
The officials said the so-called war game was not designed as a rehearsal for American military action — and they emphasized that the exercise’s results were not the only possible outcome of a real-world conflict. But the game has raised fears among top American planners that it may be impossible to preclude American involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran, the officials said. In the debate among policymakers over the consequences of any possible Israeli attack, that reaction may give stronger voice to those within the White House, Pentagon and intelligence community who have warned that a strike could prove perilous for the United States."
Interestingly, Gideon Levy, writing in Haaretz says it as it would be for Israelis were Iran to be attacked:
"The Iranians, a people with the memory of Methuselah, will neither forgive nor forget. An Israeli success will be perceived, of course, as much more serious than all the "Satanic Verses" furor. If Salman Rushdie has been living in fear of Iran for almost 25 years, the terror of the fatwah it will issue against Israelis will be greater and persist for much longer. Once again, Hebrew will not be heard beyond the threshold of Ben-Gurion International Airport. Careful, the Iranian avengers are everywhere.
An Iran that has been bombarded and defeated will be a vengeful Iran, and its revenge will be served both hot and cold. First will come the missiles on Israel, then years of terror attacks worldwide. All of that, we recall, is if Israel scores a dizzying success. A global rise in oil prices, also an immediate and unavoidable outcome of success, will bring one of two things to the White House: a furious Democratic president; or an ignorant, right-wing Republican president, neither of which is good for Israel. Europe will also be angry, as will - it almost goes without saying - Russia and China.
But back to Iran. It will redevelop its nuclear potential quickly. It will need about two years to do so, according to even the most ardent supporters of an attack. Its know-how can never be bombed and its motivation will soar, stronger than death, greater than it is now. The Iranian people will unite even more around its leadership, and its hatred for Israel will burn ever brighter."
"A classified war simulation exercise held this month to assess the American military’s capabilities to respond to an Israeli attack on Iran forecast that the strike would lead to a wider regional war, which could draw in the United States and leave hundreds of Americans dead, according to American officials.
The officials said the so-called war game was not designed as a rehearsal for American military action — and they emphasized that the exercise’s results were not the only possible outcome of a real-world conflict. But the game has raised fears among top American planners that it may be impossible to preclude American involvement in any escalating confrontation with Iran, the officials said. In the debate among policymakers over the consequences of any possible Israeli attack, that reaction may give stronger voice to those within the White House, Pentagon and intelligence community who have warned that a strike could prove perilous for the United States."
Interestingly, Gideon Levy, writing in Haaretz says it as it would be for Israelis were Iran to be attacked:
"The Iranians, a people with the memory of Methuselah, will neither forgive nor forget. An Israeli success will be perceived, of course, as much more serious than all the "Satanic Verses" furor. If Salman Rushdie has been living in fear of Iran for almost 25 years, the terror of the fatwah it will issue against Israelis will be greater and persist for much longer. Once again, Hebrew will not be heard beyond the threshold of Ben-Gurion International Airport. Careful, the Iranian avengers are everywhere.
An Iran that has been bombarded and defeated will be a vengeful Iran, and its revenge will be served both hot and cold. First will come the missiles on Israel, then years of terror attacks worldwide. All of that, we recall, is if Israel scores a dizzying success. A global rise in oil prices, also an immediate and unavoidable outcome of success, will bring one of two things to the White House: a furious Democratic president; or an ignorant, right-wing Republican president, neither of which is good for Israel. Europe will also be angry, as will - it almost goes without saying - Russia and China.
But back to Iran. It will redevelop its nuclear potential quickly. It will need about two years to do so, according to even the most ardent supporters of an attack. Its know-how can never be bombed and its motivation will soar, stronger than death, greater than it is now. The Iranian people will unite even more around its leadership, and its hatred for Israel will burn ever brighter."
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