The media is full of news asserting the end of the Gaddafi regime in Libya. It seems a tad premature to break out the champagne just yet! Whenever the dictator's reign does come to an end, what has been exercising the minds of some is what happens then?
From The New Yorker's piece "Enigmas and Lies in Libya":
"The workings of the Qaddafi machine are shrouded in seven veils of obfuscation, and it is unlikely we will ever get the full story about what has gone on there, insofar as such a story is even knowable. Saying what will happen is an even dicier exercise; those who cannot know the past are destined to befuddlement, though things are looking pretty grim for the regime.
You did not have to be in Libya for very long to discover that Qaddafi was friendless; even the people on his payroll hated him. One of those former employees recently said to me in genuine bewilderment, “Who the hell are these people who are fighting for him?” The rebels have continued to say that Qaddafi’s forces are mercenaries; Qaddafi has countered that the rebel forces are imported Al Qaeda operatives and Western imperialists. Neither version bears much congruity with the facts of the case. It would be a bit more accurate to propose that the rebels represent the eastern tribes of Libya, with support from international Islamists and crucial NATO air power, while the challenge to their advances has been undertaken by members of western tribes such as Qaddafi’s, with some deployment of mercenaries. If the tribal divisions were geographically neat, and loyalties were consistent, one might call this a civil war, but to do so would be grossly inaccurate in a situation where all parties keep lying about what side they’re on, why, and what they hope to get out of the conflict. Truth was not the lingua franca of Qaddafi’s Libya; there is no honor among these thieves. Even those who oppose the Leader have emulated his predisposition against reality and his disdain for clarity.
This does not bode well for whatever comes next. Few citizens will cry if Qaddafi hangs, but many fear that the eastern tribes, long disadvantaged inside Libya, will be harsh to the western ones if they win power. The Transitional National Council, which speaks for the rebellion, has been surprisingly effective at keeping the fighting going for six months; but to suggest that it represents the views of all Qaddafi’s opponents would be naïve. It doesn’t even represent the views of all members of the established resistance in the eastern part of Libya, and it will surely not represent the interests of the many sophisticated Tripolitans who despise the Leader, but also dislike the rebels’ ragtag chaos. The T.N.C. has tended to describe itself in whatever terms will most effectively secure it NATO’s continued allegiance. These are nothing more than campaign promises, irrelevant to postwar leadership and reconstruction."
Veteran Middle-Eastern journalist, and author, Paul McGeough, writing in The Sydney Morning Herald:
"But with the protracted Afghanistan and Iraq ventures on display, not too many will quibble with the observation that at this stage, we don't have a clue on how events will unfold in post-Gaddafi Libya.
Because of Iraq and Afghanistan, Washington and the rest have been reluctant to be seen to be planning to ''manage'' the new Libya. Two days ago, a senior American military officer shared his concerns with The New York Times: ''… There [is] no clear plan for a political succession or for maintaining security in the country. The [African and Arab] leaders I have talked to do not have a clear understanding how this will play out.''
The rebel National Transitional Council, recognised by 32 countries, has promised none of the bedlam of liberated Baghdad and it has undertaken to reissue its greenhorn fighters with a booklet on the finer points of human rights and the laws of war.
The Americans disposed of the security forces in Iraq, but the NTC says it plans to retain parts of the Libyan security machine. But the rebels will want to run the show and many will be bent on revenge against those who fought for the regime.
The NTC is an unknown quantity. The murder of its rebel military commander Abdel Fatah Younis is unexplained, as is the dissolution this month of the rebel cabinet, and the failure to appoint a new one.
In a part of the world in which power brokers have mastered the art of telling the West what it wants to hear while getting on with their own local agendas, it remains to be seen if signs of what has been read as evidence of common sense, democratic instinct, idealism and decency are to be deployed on behalf of all Libyans."
From The New Yorker's piece "Enigmas and Lies in Libya":
"The workings of the Qaddafi machine are shrouded in seven veils of obfuscation, and it is unlikely we will ever get the full story about what has gone on there, insofar as such a story is even knowable. Saying what will happen is an even dicier exercise; those who cannot know the past are destined to befuddlement, though things are looking pretty grim for the regime.
You did not have to be in Libya for very long to discover that Qaddafi was friendless; even the people on his payroll hated him. One of those former employees recently said to me in genuine bewilderment, “Who the hell are these people who are fighting for him?” The rebels have continued to say that Qaddafi’s forces are mercenaries; Qaddafi has countered that the rebel forces are imported Al Qaeda operatives and Western imperialists. Neither version bears much congruity with the facts of the case. It would be a bit more accurate to propose that the rebels represent the eastern tribes of Libya, with support from international Islamists and crucial NATO air power, while the challenge to their advances has been undertaken by members of western tribes such as Qaddafi’s, with some deployment of mercenaries. If the tribal divisions were geographically neat, and loyalties were consistent, one might call this a civil war, but to do so would be grossly inaccurate in a situation where all parties keep lying about what side they’re on, why, and what they hope to get out of the conflict. Truth was not the lingua franca of Qaddafi’s Libya; there is no honor among these thieves. Even those who oppose the Leader have emulated his predisposition against reality and his disdain for clarity.
This does not bode well for whatever comes next. Few citizens will cry if Qaddafi hangs, but many fear that the eastern tribes, long disadvantaged inside Libya, will be harsh to the western ones if they win power. The Transitional National Council, which speaks for the rebellion, has been surprisingly effective at keeping the fighting going for six months; but to suggest that it represents the views of all Qaddafi’s opponents would be naïve. It doesn’t even represent the views of all members of the established resistance in the eastern part of Libya, and it will surely not represent the interests of the many sophisticated Tripolitans who despise the Leader, but also dislike the rebels’ ragtag chaos. The T.N.C. has tended to describe itself in whatever terms will most effectively secure it NATO’s continued allegiance. These are nothing more than campaign promises, irrelevant to postwar leadership and reconstruction."
Veteran Middle-Eastern journalist, and author, Paul McGeough, writing in The Sydney Morning Herald:
"But with the protracted Afghanistan and Iraq ventures on display, not too many will quibble with the observation that at this stage, we don't have a clue on how events will unfold in post-Gaddafi Libya.
Because of Iraq and Afghanistan, Washington and the rest have been reluctant to be seen to be planning to ''manage'' the new Libya. Two days ago, a senior American military officer shared his concerns with The New York Times: ''… There [is] no clear plan for a political succession or for maintaining security in the country. The [African and Arab] leaders I have talked to do not have a clear understanding how this will play out.''
The rebel National Transitional Council, recognised by 32 countries, has promised none of the bedlam of liberated Baghdad and it has undertaken to reissue its greenhorn fighters with a booklet on the finer points of human rights and the laws of war.
The Americans disposed of the security forces in Iraq, but the NTC says it plans to retain parts of the Libyan security machine. But the rebels will want to run the show and many will be bent on revenge against those who fought for the regime.
The NTC is an unknown quantity. The murder of its rebel military commander Abdel Fatah Younis is unexplained, as is the dissolution this month of the rebel cabinet, and the failure to appoint a new one.
In a part of the world in which power brokers have mastered the art of telling the West what it wants to hear while getting on with their own local agendas, it remains to be seen if signs of what has been read as evidence of common sense, democratic instinct, idealism and decency are to be deployed on behalf of all Libyans."
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