Within 34 years the sort of world we are living in will be significantly different to now - if climate change continues along its present course.
"If global warming continues its trajectory, the year average temperatures surpass historical norms is just over a few decades away, bringing huge threats to global biodiversity, a new study shows.
Researchers at the University of Hawaii, Manoa created an index based on 39 climate models used in a dozen countries, and compared that data to the extreme records from 1860 through 2005.
“We looked at the minimum and maximum values that occurred in that 150-year window and that’s how we set our bounds of recent historical variability,” explained Ryan Longman, a doctoral student who worked on the analysis.
The researchers were then able to come up with the "year of climate departure," and found that the worldwide average for that date was 2047, meaning that every year after that point will be as warm or warmer. In other words, it's the date "when the old maximum average temperatures become the new minimum temperatures."
"The results shocked us," Camilo Mora, the study's lead author, said in a statement. "Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon. Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past."
In 2047, Washington, DC and New York City will see temperatures exceeding historical norms. In Mexico City, that date could come as soon as 2031. For Kingston, Jamaica, it's just 10 years away. (You can see more of the findings in this map.)
While the Arctic and Antarctic have been the subject numerous reports on the effects of climate change, the new study shows how small temperature changes in the Tropics could have massive impacts."
"If global warming continues its trajectory, the year average temperatures surpass historical norms is just over a few decades away, bringing huge threats to global biodiversity, a new study shows.
Researchers at the University of Hawaii, Manoa created an index based on 39 climate models used in a dozen countries, and compared that data to the extreme records from 1860 through 2005.
“We looked at the minimum and maximum values that occurred in that 150-year window and that’s how we set our bounds of recent historical variability,” explained Ryan Longman, a doctoral student who worked on the analysis.
The researchers were then able to come up with the "year of climate departure," and found that the worldwide average for that date was 2047, meaning that every year after that point will be as warm or warmer. In other words, it's the date "when the old maximum average temperatures become the new minimum temperatures."
"The results shocked us," Camilo Mora, the study's lead author, said in a statement. "Regardless of the scenario, changes will be coming soon. Within my generation, whatever climate we were used to will be a thing of the past."
In 2047, Washington, DC and New York City will see temperatures exceeding historical norms. In Mexico City, that date could come as soon as 2031. For Kingston, Jamaica, it's just 10 years away. (You can see more of the findings in this map.)
While the Arctic and Antarctic have been the subject numerous reports on the effects of climate change, the new study shows how small temperature changes in the Tropics could have massive impacts."
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