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Nightmare scenario looms in Libya

This does not make for happy reading....and again highlights that just using power and might swinging into foreign countries - especially with out a Plan B or forethought of how things might pan out - is downright dangerous. Deutsche Welle explains a how a nightmare scenario is looming in Libya.

"There is a new smell of fear circulating under the sweet scent of victory; a fear that the National Transitional Council (NTC) is incapable of uniting and controlling the diverse elements within the rebellion and that the tribal rivals which are beginning to bicker over the spoils of war may soon start fighting each other over them.

With the possibility of Libya becoming a nation governed by a NATO-backed, weak and undemocratic central administration led by a compliant president and besieged by Islamist militants, some commentators have likened the unfolding situation as one akin to Afghanistan.

Others have rejected this, saying that Libya lacks a meddling neighbor like Pakistan, secretly supporting or condoning Islamist militias within the unstable state. Libya's closest neighbors, Tunisia and Egypt, are themselves preoccupied with their own post-uprising recovery.

Some have used the same argument to reject claims that Libya could become the next Iraq as it is not unsettled by external forces like Iran or Saudi Arabia. Unlike Iraq in the wake of Saddam Hussein's fall, Libya also has a government-in-waiting which has made preparations for a takeover - however flawed and undermined these may be.

Libya does, however, have similarities to both conflicts and is already showing elements of both which NATO will be acutely and painfully aware of.

Just as in Iraq, Libya faces the prospect of elements that supported the ousted Gadhafi regime attempting to fight their newfound marginalization and preserve their power bases. If the rebels crack down on former regime figures, then any backing for the Gadhafi regime which has been driven underground could re-ignite and galvanize support for any insurgency."

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