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New Rules for the Middle East

Rami G. Khouri is editor-at-large of The Daily Star and director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.

Writing an op-ed piece in the IHT he reflects on how the last weeks have seen some sizeable shifts underway in the Middle East as some countries and parties grapple with some of the issues confronting them - without the "involvement" of the US.

"The accord that has resolved the immediate political crisis in Lebanon is the latest example of the new political power equation that is redefining the Middle East. It reflects both local and global forces, and 18 years after the Cold War ended, provides a glimpse of what the post-Cold War world will look like - at least in the Middle East.

Several dynamics seem to be at play, but one stands out as paramount: We are witnessing the clear limits of the projection of American global power, combined with the assertion and coexistence of multiple regional powers (Turkey, Israel, Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas, Saudi Arabia, etc.). These local powers tend to fight and negotiate at the same time, and ultimately prefer to make reasonable compromises rather than perpetually wage absolutist battles."

And

"The United States is a slow learner in the Middle East, where the terrain is strange, the body language bizarre, the fierce power of historical memory incomprehensible, and the negotiating techniques otherworldly. But the United States is not stupid. It learns over time that if you retread a flat tire over and over again, and it keeps going flat on you, perhaps it is time to buy a new tire - if you hope to actually move forward."

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