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The Iranian regime won't last, says critic

Mohsen Kadivar is considered one of the leading religious critics of the Iranian regime. He spent 18 months in the infamous Ervin prison for his beliefs. In recognition of his efforts to reconcile Islam and democracy, Time magazine called him one the world's most important innovators. Currently, the professor, who carries the religious status of ayatollah, or "sign of god," is teaching for a semester at Duke University in North Carolina.

In a Q & A with Spiegel OnLine International [read it in full here] Kadivar predicts the downfall of the current Iranian regime:

"You are right that the Shiite theocracy in its present form has failed -- a fact that few have expressed as clearly as my teacher in the last few months. Incidentally, when Grand Ayatollah Montazeri had his falling out with Khomeini, three months before the supreme religious leader's death in 1989, he said: This state is so different from the one we dreamed of and worked to create. Still, it is not Islam which has failed, but rather a particular interpretation of Islam. I also want to express that there hasn't been a revolution in Iran yet. The opposition is becoming increasingly clear in the formulation of its objectives and more daring. Still, we need to remain patient. I do not know when, exactly, but I am convinced that the regime will collapse."

Meanwhile, The Atlantic reports on what seems like an increasingly dire situation in Iran:

"Violence and protests in Iran, which have surged repeatedly since the fraud-ridden June 2009 elections, are reaching new heights. The most recent demonstrations has already seen 15 killed and 300 arrested. This unverified, widely-distributed and very graphic video appears to show several prisoners saved from the gallows by protesters. Meanwhile, Iranian forces have arrested top aides to opposition leader Mir-Hussein Moussavi, a 2009 presidential candidate who has come to be the face of the Iranian "green" movement. Moussavi's nephew was recently killed, sparking further unrest.

No one is certain what will happen next or how Iran's leadership, Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, will respond, but analysts are debating where the demonstrations could lead."

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