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Turkey. Iran, George Bush, Oil and John Howard

You might well ask what the connection between Turkey, Iran, George Bush, oil and John Howard is. Easy, actually. In a globalised economy and ready repercussions of political events, overnight in New York the price for oil went to US$92.22 a barrel - and is said to be destined to go to US$100. Why?

The threat of Turkey invading northern Iraq to curb those pesky Kurds there and George Bush talking of World War III in relation to Iran has made markets nervous. For John Howard a rising oil price with attendant increases in petrol prices and that feeding into inflation - and then the probability of the Reserve Bank raising interest rates on 7 November - translates into a potentially greater loss for the Howard Government in the election on 24 November.

Bottom line PM Howard can probably thank his good friend George Bush and having been a willing partner in the Coalition of the Willing as the repercussions spelling his death knell. And, of course, we can't forget Howard's other friend, Rupert Murdoch, who predicted that one positive outcome of the Iraq War would be oil at US$20 a barrel.

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