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An opportunity [or at least a chance!] missed

The Indpendent's Leading Article puts it succinctly:

"For much of the past year, the state of Israel, while marking 60 years of its existence, has been in a state of stasis. Mired in allegations of corruption, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has let matters drift, with depressing consequences for the comatose peace process with the Palestinians.

For those who observed this with despair, the only hope was that the new leader of Mr Olmert's Kadima Party, Tzipi Livni, might inject a new sense of purpose into government after Mr Olmert steps down. But now her chances of becoming Israel's second woman prime minister after Golda Meir are fading. Having failed to cobble together a coalition, she has been forced to ask the President to call early elections, which she is likely to lose. Ms Livni was no dream partner for the neglected and mistreated moderates of Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah movement. The daughter of Zionist zealots, she might well have carried the hardline anti-Arab views she imbibed as a child into her political career. Even today, she has hardly experienced a Damascene conversion to the cause of Palestinian statehood.

Yet Ms Livni, even if only for pragmatic reasons, has at least persuaded herself that the survival of Israel as a Jewish state depends on the creation of a Palestinian state as soon as possible. Now, however, she must march into elections next year with the odds weighted in favour of her right-wing rival, the Likud leader Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu. If the great friend of the West Bank settlers sweeps back into office, it takes no great powers of prophecy to predict years more of sterile and sometimes bloody confrontation.

The phrase "last chance" may be used too often in the context of Israeli-Palestinian relations but there is a real fear that dire warnings may not be misplaced this time. After a few more years under "Bibi", the network of Jewish settlements on the West Bank will have become so dense that realistic expectations of disengagement will have become impractical.

This is an abysmal scenario, with baleful implications for Israel's long-term future. It is still possble Ms Livni will beat Mr Netanyahu. But the polls do not look hopeful. If she doesn't get her chance to make a difference, it will have been a missed opportunity."

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