Middle East expert, Professor Juan Cole, provides a fascinating background to why George W folded on Iran recently in a piece in Salon "Why Bush folded on Iran":
"Pundits and diplomats nearly got whiplash from the double take they did when George W. Bush sent the No. 3 man in the State Department to sit at a table on July 19 across from an Iranian negotiator, without any preconditions. When Bush had addressed the Israeli Knesset in May, he made headlines by denouncing any negotiation with "terrorists and radicals" as "the false comfort of appeasement." What drove W. to undermine John McCain by suddenly adopting Barack Obama's foreign policy prescription on Iran?"
And:
"The run-up in petroleum prices has also had major implications for Iran strategy. Oil companies and European governments are not happy with U.S. policy toward Iran. American and European energy corporations are losing billions in potential profits because of congressionally mandated third-party sanctions on companies that attempt to develop Iran's oil and gas. The sanctions do not produce regime change, but they do reduce the world supply of oil and gas, and they irritate U.S. allies. In the past few months Royal Dutch Shell and Total S.A. have both pulled out of plans to develop lucrative and vast Iranian gas fields, under strong U.S. pressure and threats of economic sanctions. Sanctions are pushing up the cost of oil -- but a war with Iran would push up the price still more. Meanwhile, the sanctions have enough of an economic impact on Iran to make it more amenable to negotiations. Well aware that internationally supported economic sanctions had helped turn Iraq into a fourth-world country prior to the U.S. invasion, the Iranians were eager to seem accommodating during the July 19 meeting in Geneva."
"Pundits and diplomats nearly got whiplash from the double take they did when George W. Bush sent the No. 3 man in the State Department to sit at a table on July 19 across from an Iranian negotiator, without any preconditions. When Bush had addressed the Israeli Knesset in May, he made headlines by denouncing any negotiation with "terrorists and radicals" as "the false comfort of appeasement." What drove W. to undermine John McCain by suddenly adopting Barack Obama's foreign policy prescription on Iran?"
And:
"The run-up in petroleum prices has also had major implications for Iran strategy. Oil companies and European governments are not happy with U.S. policy toward Iran. American and European energy corporations are losing billions in potential profits because of congressionally mandated third-party sanctions on companies that attempt to develop Iran's oil and gas. The sanctions do not produce regime change, but they do reduce the world supply of oil and gas, and they irritate U.S. allies. In the past few months Royal Dutch Shell and Total S.A. have both pulled out of plans to develop lucrative and vast Iranian gas fields, under strong U.S. pressure and threats of economic sanctions. Sanctions are pushing up the cost of oil -- but a war with Iran would push up the price still more. Meanwhile, the sanctions have enough of an economic impact on Iran to make it more amenable to negotiations. Well aware that internationally supported economic sanctions had helped turn Iraq into a fourth-world country prior to the U.S. invasion, the Iranians were eager to seem accommodating during the July 19 meeting in Geneva."
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