Once again the war drums are beating. There is a palpable itching by Israel and the US, in particular, to take on Iran because it seeks to establish a nuclear capacity. We all ought to be alarmed....as, indeed, the USA. It seems, as this piece from Information Clearing House so clearly highlights, the Americans haven't learned anything from their previous action in relation to Iran.
Although U.S.-led Western allies are flexing their muscles by sending battleships to the Persian Gulf, Washington’s own war game exercise, the Millennium Challenge 2002 (with a price tag of $250 million), underscored its inability to defeat Iran. Oblivious to the lesson of its own making, by sending more warships to the Persian Gulf the U.S. is inching toward a full-scale conflict. The inherent danger from a naval buildup is that, unlike during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the forces in the Persian Gulf are not confined to two leaders who would be able to communicate to stop a runaway situation. Nor would the consequences of such a potential conflict be limited to the region.
Given that 17 million barrels of oil a day, or 35% of the world’s seaborne oil exports, go through the Strait of Hormuz, incidents in the Strait would be fatal for the world economy. While only 1.1 million barrels per day go to the U.S., a significant amount of this oil is destined for Europe. One must ask why the U.S. demands that its “European allies” act contrary to their own national interests, pay a higher price for oil by boycotting Iran’s exports, and increase the risk of Iran blocking the passage of other oil tankers destined for them.
Again, history has a straight answer. Contrary to conventional wisdom about oil producing-countries, it is the U.S. that has used oil as a weapon. Some examples include the pressure Washington put on Britain in the 1920s to share its oil concessions in the Middle East with U.S. companies. After World War II, the U.S. violated the terms of the 1928 Red Line Agreement, freezing the British and the French out of the agreement.
In 1956, the U.S. made it clear to Britain and France that no oil would be sent to Western Europe unless the two countries agreed to a rapid withdrawal from Egypt. The U.S. was not opposed to the overthrow of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser, but President Dwight. D. Eisenhower said: “Had they done it quickly, we would have accepted it.”
It is possible that the leaders of Western European countries are beholden to special interest groups such as pro-Israel lobbies, as the U.S. is. Or they may believe that Iran will not call their bluff by ratifying the bill passed by the Majlis and that oil will be delivered unhindered. Either way, they are committing financial suicide and may well suffer serious consequences before Iran’s resolve is shaken.
Comments